Drought Report for Virginia and Elsewhere as of mid-September, 2012

The September 18, 2012, U.S. Drought Monitor (available at http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/) rated as at least “abnormally dry” about 54 percent of Virginia (basically the Blue Ridge east, except for southeastern corner and some spots in Southside); and it rated 14 percent of the Commonwealth in “moderate drought, ” including the following areas: Lower Potomac basin, Northern Neck, several counties in central Virginia, and the northern part of Accomack County.  (The Drought Monitor notes that it “focuses on broad-scale conditions, and local conditions may vary.”  See rating categories below.)  This compares to 70 percent of Virginia rated abnormally dry and 16 percent in moderate drought in mid-August, 89 percent abnormally dry and 16 percent in moderate drought in mid-July, 18 percent abnormally dry in mid-June, and 54 percent abnormally dry in mid-May.  At this time last year (week of September 20, 2011), about 5 percent of Virginia was rated as at least abnormally dry and about 2 percent was rated in moderate drought.  The current Virginia drought map and a link to archived maps are available at http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DM_state.htm?VA,SE.

The Drought Monitor’s categories, from mildest to most severe, are as follows:
D0 = Abnormally Dry
D1 = Moderate Drought
D2 = Severe Drought
D3 = Extreme Drought
D4 = Exceptional Drought

The Virginia Drought Monitoring Task Force, a collaboration of state and federal agencies, issued its most recent Drought Status Report on September 7, 2012.  The report includes information from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Virginia departments of Agriculture and Consumer Services, Health, Forestry, and Environmental Quality.  That report and other current drought-status information are available online at http://www.deq.virginia.gov/Programs/Water/WaterSupplyWaterQuantity/Drought.aspx.  As of September 21, the Task Force had issued a Drought Warning for the Appomattox River basin and a Drought Watch for the northern Piedmont and the Roanoke River basin.  (Please see also the News Grouper item Drought Warning Issued on August 14, 2012, by Va. DEQ for Appomattox River Basin; Drought Watch for northern Piedmont and Roanoke River Basin, posted 8/15/12.)

The Drought Monitoring Task Force also produces a daily map rating groundwater levels (GW), precipitation deficits (Prcp), reservoir storage (Res), and stream flow (Flow) conditions across the Commonwealth.  In each area, a color code indicates “normal,” “watch,” “warning,” or “emergency conditions.”  The September 21, 2012, map is shown below.  The current map and more information on the ratings are available online at the Web site listed above.

Elsewhere in the United States, the September 18 Drought Monitor categorized over 70 percent of the country as at least abnormally dry (combined categories D0-D4), and over 34 percent in at least severe drought (combined categories D2-D4).  As in mid-August 2012, these are some of the highest such percentages since the beginning of the Drought Monitor in 2000 (exceeded only by slightly higher percentages in various weeks between July and early September 2012).  Thirteen states, listed below, had at least 50 percent of their area rated in at least D2 (the percentage rated in the combined D2-D4 is shown), and seven states had at least 50 percent of their area in extreme or exceptional drought (D3-D4).  Note that Nebraska had 98 percent of the state rated in extreme or exceptional categories, and 71 percent in the exceptional category:

ARK = 74%
CO = 100% (62% in extreme/exceptional)
IA = 100% (66% in extreme/exceptional)
KS = 100% (88% in extreme/exceptional; 51% in exceptional)
MO = 85%
NE = 100% (98% in extreme/exceptional; 71 percent in exceptional)
NEV = 56%
NM = 63%
OK = 100% (95% in extreme/exceptional)
SD = 68% (51% in extreme/exceptional)
TX = 52%
UT = 83%
WY = 87% (58% in extreme/exceptional)

As of September 20, \the National Weather Service/Climate Prediction Center’s “U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook” for the next 90 days (available at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/seasonal_drought.html) predicts “persistence” for the drought over much of the western half of the United States with “some improvement” in the lower Ohio and lower Mississippi river basins.

For previous Virginia Water Central News Grouper mid-month drought reports during the current year, please click the following links:
Mid-August 2012
Mid-July 2012
Mid-June 2012
Mid-May 2012
Mid-April 2012
Mid-March 2012
Mid-February 2012
Mid-January 2012

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