As of Monday, September 26, 2016, three areas of tropical disturbance (potential precursors of tropical cyclones) were present in the Atlantic basin (Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico). The three areas are shown below in the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) two-day graphical tropical weather outlook, as of 2 p.m. on 9/19/16, accessed at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. Here are the NHC’s descriptions of the status of these disturbances (the numbers correspond to those on the photo below):
#1: showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 950 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. Environmental conditions remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Chance of formation of a tropical cyclone through 48 hours = 70 percent; formation chance through 5 days = 90 percent.
#2: shower activity in association with the remnants of Lisa (formerly a tropical storm), located about 700 miles southwest of the Azores. This system is expected to merge with a cold front on Tuesday before regeneration into a tropical cyclone can occur. Chance of formation of a tropical cyclone through 48 hours = 10 percent; formation chance through 5 days = 10 percent.
#3: widespread cloudiness and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, associated with a trough of low pressure that is drifting westward. Upper-level winds are not expected to be conducive for significant development before this system moves inland over northeastern Mexico. Chance of formation of a tropical cyclone through 48 hours = 10 percent; formation chance through 5 days = 10 percent.