On October 1, 2016, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued its latest monthly report on the Atlantic tropical storm season; that report is available online at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSAT.shtml. Following is an excerpt from the monthly report for September: “Five named storms formed in the Atlantic basin in September. One of these, Matthew, reached major hurricane strength over the south-central Caribbean Sea. In addition, Hermine, which formed at the end of August, reached hurricane strength on September 1. Based on a 30-year (1981-2010) climatology, four named storms typically form in the Atlantic basin in September, with two or three becoming hurricanes and one or two reaching major hurricane status. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in the basin so far in 2016 is slightly below normal. The ACE through the end of September is about 90 percent of the 1981-2010 median value to date.”
Also from the monthly report for September 2016, here is the NHC’s list of all tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes this year through July, with their dates of occurrence and maximum wind speeds. (Abbreviations: H = hurricane; MH = major hurricane; TD = tropical depression; TS = tropical storm)
H Alex – Jan. 13-15 – 85 mph
TS Bonnie – May 27-June 4 – 45 mph
TS Colin – June 5-7 – 50 mph
TS Danielle – June 19-21 – 45 mph
H Earl – Aug. 2-6 – 80 mph
TS Fiona – Aug. 17-23 – 50 mph
MH Gaston – Aug 22-Sep. 3 – 120 mph
TD Eight – Aug. 28-Sep 1 – 35 mph
TS Hermine – Aug 28-Sep. 3 – 80 mph
TS Ian – Sep. 12-16 – 60 mph
TS Julia – Sep. 13-19 – 40 mph
TS Karl – Sep. 14-25 – 70 mph
TS Lisa – Sep. 19-25 – 50 mph
MH Matthew – Sep. 28-present – 160 mph
When completed, reports on individual 2016 storms (including tracks) will be available online at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2016&basin=atl.
Below is the NHC’s graph of preliminary (subject to verification) tracks of the first eight Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes in 2016 (through Hurricane Hermine), accessed at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSAT.shtml, 10/3/16.
As of October 3, the center of Hurricane Matthew–Category 4 as of 8 a.m. EDT on 10/3/16–was in the Caribbean Sea and was predicted to move north across Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas by October 5 and possibly to strike the U.S. East Coast by the weekend. There was also a disturbance northeast of the Caribbean Sea that forecasters were giving a 40-percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. See the 2-day Graphical Tropical Outlook as of 7:22 a.m. EDT on October 3, 2016, below.
National Hurricane Center’s 2-day Graphical Tropical Outlook for the Atlantic basin, accessed at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, 10:00 a.m. EDT on 10/3/16.
Below is an October 3, 2016, 8:45 a.m. EDT satellite photo of Hurricane Matthew (category 4 at the time), centered south of Jamaica and Haiti in the Caribbean Sea. Photo accessed at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Web site at http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html, on 10/3/16, 9:30 a.m. EDT. NOTE: Z, or Greenwich Mean Time, shown on the photo is 4 hours ahead of EDT and 5 hours ahead of EST.