Category Archives: Oceans

National Hurricane Center’s Graphical Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for 2 Days and 5 Days, as of October 10, 2017

Here’s a look at the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) Atlantic tropical weather outlook for the next few days.  The Virginia Water Central News Grouper posts these outlooks approximately weekly (depending on the level of weather activity) during the Atlantic tropical storm season (June 1-November 30).

As of 2 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, October 10, 2017, Tropical Storm Ophelia was located in the mid-Atlantic Ocean, about 780 miles west of the Azore Islands, which in turn are several hundred miles west of Portugal.  The storm was being predicted to move eastward through Sunday, October 15.  Shown below are the NHC’s two-day and five-day graphical tropical weather outlooks as of  2 p.m. EDT on October 10, accessed at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.

Tropical storms 2 day Oct10Tropical storms 5 day Oct10

National Hurricane Center’s Graphical Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for 2 Days and 5 Days, as of October 6, 2017

Here’s a look at the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) Atlantic tropical weather outlook for the next few days.  The Virginia Water Central News Grouper posts these outlooks approximately weekly (depending on the level of weather activity) during the Atlantic tropical storm season (June 1-November 30).  As of 12 p.m. EDT on Friday, October 6, 2017, the center of Tropical Storm Nate was located about 125 southeast of Cozumel, Mexico.  The storm was predicted to affect Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Friday, make landfall along the Gulf Coast late Saturday or early Sunday (predicted to be at hurricane strength by then), and track eventually as a tropical depression from Alabama to New England.  At the same time, a pre-tropical disturbance Atlantic Ocean about midway between Africa and North America was being given by the NHC a 10-percent chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours as well as a 20-percent chance within five days.  Shown below are the NHC’s two-day and five-day graphical tropical weather outlooks as of 10:22 a.m. EDT on October 6, accessed at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.

tropical outlook Oct6tropical outlook five day Oct6

September 2017 Atlantic Tropical Storm Summary from the National Hurricane Center Issued October 1, 2017

On October 1, 2017, the National Hurricane Center issued its latest monthly report on the Atlantic tropical storm season; that report was available online at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSAT.shtml, as of October 2.  Following is an excerpt from that report.

“Four tropical cyclones formed, all of which became hurricanes, and three of those four became major hurricanes.  Hurricane Irma was also present in the basin as a major hurricane during the month, although it formed in late August.  Both Irma and Maria reached category 5 intensity during the month of September.  Based on a 30-year climatology (1981-2010), the number of named storms forming in the basin during September was near average, but the numbers of hurricanes and major hurricanes were both well above average.

“In terms of the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, September 2017 was the most active month on record, easily breaking the previous record of September 2004.

“Overall, this September was about 3.5 times more active than an average September from 1981-2010.  From a seasonal perspective, activity in the Atlantic basin so far in 2017 is well above average, and this season is the 3rd most active on record to date in the basin, behind 1933 and 2004.”

Also from the report for September 2017, here is the NHC’s list of all tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes this year through September, with their dates of occurrence and maximum wind speeds (abbreviations: H = hurricane; MH = major hurricane; TD = tropical depression; TS = tropical storm):

TS Arlene – Apr. 19-21 Apr – 50 mph
TS Bret – Jun. 19-20 – 45 mph
TS Cindy – Jun. 20-23 – 60 mph
TD Four – Jul. 6-7 – 30 mph
TS Don – Jul. 17-18 – 50 mph
TS Emily – Jul. 31-Aug. 1 – 45 mph
H Franklin – Aug. 6-10 – 85 mph
H Gert – Aug. 13-17 – 105 mph
MH Harvey – Aug. 17-Sep. 1 – 130 mph
MH Irma – Aug. 30-Sep. 12 – 185 mph
MH Jose – Sep. 5-Sep. 22 – 155 mph
H  Katia – Sep. 5-Sep. 9 – 105 mph
MH Lee – Sep. 15-Sep. 30 – 115 mph
MH Maria – Sep. 16-Sep. 30 – 175 mph

When completed, reports on individual 2017 storms (including tracks) will be available online at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2017&basin=atl.

Below is the Hurricane Center’s graph of preliminary (subject to verification) tracks of Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes in 2017 through September, accessed at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSAT.shtml, 10/2/17.
Tropical Storms Sep 2017

Hurricane Maria Information Sources as of Sep. 25, 2017

National Hurricane Center (NHC) information on Maria is available online at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/MARIA.shtml?.  The NHC Web site for advisories, tracks, etc., of all current tropical storms is http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml.

Following are links to some news media sources that covered Maria:
Miami Herald, online at http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/;
Puerto Rico Monitor (English), online at http://puertoricomonitor.blogspot.com.au/;
USA Today, online at https://www.usatoday.com/topic/Hurricane-Maria/local;
Virgin Islands Consortium, online at http://viconsortium.com/;
Virgin Islands Daily News, online at http://www.virginislandsdailynews.com/.
List of seven Puerto Rico news media, online at http://www.allyoucanread.com/puerto-rico-newspapers/.

Following are links to other sources of information on Irma:
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA): https://www.fema.gov/hurricane-maria#;
Governor of Puerto Rico: http://prfaa.pr.gov/;
Governor of Virgin Islands: http://governormapp.com/.

Below is a graph of Maria’s wind history, as of 2 p.m. EDT on September 25, taken from the NHC Web site at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?cone#contents; followed by a satellite photo of Maria on September 25 as the storm was off the coast of the Carolinas, taken from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Web site at http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html, on 9/25/17, 11 a.m. EDT.
Maria windsMaria photo

National Hurricane Center’s Graphical Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for 2 Days and 5 Days, as of September 25, 2017

Here’s a look at the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) Atlantic tropical weather outlook for the next few days.  The Virginia Water Central News Grouper posts these outlooks approximately weekly (depending on the level of weather activity) during the Atlantic tropical storm season (June 1-November 30).

As of 11 a.m. EDT on September 25, 2017, the center of Hurricane Maria (Category 1 at the time) was located about 315 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C.  The storm was expected to bring ocean swells and tropical-storm-force winds to parts of North Carolina and Virginia by September 26.

Meanwhile, the center of Hurricane Lee was in the mid-Atlantic (about 900 miles east of Bermuda) and was predicted to turn north and then northeast from Septembe 28 to 30.

Shown below are the NHC’s two-day and five-day graphical tropical weather outlooks as of 10:40 a.m. EDT on September 25, accessed at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.

tropical storms 2 day Sep25tropical storms 5 day Sep25

Virginia State and Locality Responses to Hurricane-affected Areas in August-September 2017, According to Governor’s News Release on September 22, 2017

On September 22, 2017, Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe authorized the Virginia National Guard to send 120 soldiers to the U.S. Virgin Islands as part of the response efforts among several states and agencies to Hurricane Maria and earlier to Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.  Following is an excerpt from the Governor’s Office news release on the Virgin Islands deployment; the excerpt also includes information on deployment by state agencies and local response teams to other areas for previous storms in 2017.

Except Begins

Governor McAuliffe today has authorized the Virginia National Guard to send 120 soldiers to the U.S. Virgin Islands to join a multi-state, multi-agency response effort to recent hurricanes.  The Commonwealth of Virginia continues to send needed supplies, personnel and expertise into the storm-ravaged areas to assist with recovery and give emergency managers on the ground a rest from the relentless demands of their jobs helping others deal with these catastrophic events.

An advance team arrived in the region on September 18, 2017, just before Hurricane Maria made landfall.  The 120 soldiers authorized today are assigned to the Staunton-based 116th Infantry Brigade Combat Team, and will deploy in the next week as the mission command headquarters to synchronize the response and coordinate logistical support.  Up to 400 additional soldiers are scheduled to follow soon after to conduct humanitarian assistance, clear roads, and distribute essential supplies to citizens.  Virginia National Guard soldiers will be deployed on the ground by the U.S. Virgin Islands Governor Kenneth Mapp to get assistance where it is most needed. …

Virginia has coordinated 10 missions of aid to these regions [listed below], not including countless assistance efforts coordinated by religious and non-profit organizations based in Virginia.  The largest single mission is readying to deploy this week, including the hundreds of Virginia National Guard personnel deploying to the Virgin Islands to assist with the devastation caused by Hurricane Maria. …Since Hurricane Harvey struck Texas last month, Virginia has been providing emergency management and response assistance across the southeastern portions of the nation.  Missions can be coordinated through federal partners such as the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), or through a cooperative agreement between states called the Emergency Management Assistance Compact (EMAC), through which impacted states can input their needs for assistance and other states can quickly mobilize resources to meet those needs.  Logistics and financial reimbursement are then coordinated through the EMAC system. …

*In late August, the Virginia National Guard sent approximately 40 soldiers and six helicopters to Texas to assist with Hurricane Harvey recovery operations, and after transporting medical personnel and supplies, they safely returned to Virginia in early September.

*On September 18, a joint incident management team comprised of 15 individuals from across the Commonwealth deployed to assist with emergency operations center management in Monroe County, Florida (Florida Keys).  The team will provide command and control support in the region through early October.

*A Virginia Department of Emergency Management (VDEM) volunteer coordinator is currently working in Texas to assist with coordination of thousands of volunteers arriving in the area through non-profit and religious organizations.  This mission is slated to continue through the end of September.

*Roanoke’s 17-person Strike Team 6 deployed to Texas on August 30and spent more than a week conducting water rescues of civilians trapped in the rising flood waters from Hurricane Harvey.

*The 14-person Fairfax Task Force 1 deployed to Texas on a mission organized by the federal government to assist in swift water rescues of civilians from August 27 to September 6.

*Virginia Beach Virginia Task Force 2 deployed to Texas to assist in federal government organized assistance, providing swift water rescue support through September 5.

*A blended incident management team comprised of emergency managers from across the Commonwealth deployed to Texas from September 1 to September 9 to provide emergency management command and control support.

*Virginia’s Task Force 2 from Virginia Beach deployed to Puerto Rico under a federal response effort to provide on-the-ground emergency response support for both Hurricane Irma and Hurricane Maria.  Personnel originally deployed September 4 in anticipation of Irma, and 16 additional personnel were deployed on September 7 to address the devastation wrought by Hurricane Maria.

*Virginia’s Task Force 1 from Fairfax deployed to Alabama September 6 to provide immediate on the ground support following the impacts of Hurricane Irma.

*The Virginia Department of Conservation and Recreation Restoration and Cleanup Strike Team deployed to Florida in late August to assist with on-the-ground cleanup efforts from Hurricane Irma.

To learn how to help those who have been affected by the recent natural disasters please visit http://www.vaemergency.gov/want-help-hurricane-victims-heres-right/.

Excerpt Ends

Source: Governor McAuliffe Authorizes National Guard to Deploy Significant Force to U.S. Virgin Islands, Virginia Governor’s Office News Release, 9/22/17.

Adapt Virginia Web Portal on Climate Change Adaptation Released in Summer 2017

In Summer 2017, the Adapt Virginia Web portal on climate adaptation was announced by the Virginia Institute or Marine Science’s Center for Coastal Resources Management (CCRM).  The Web site is http://adaptva.com/.  According to that site, Adapt Virginia (AdaptVA) “is a gateway to information for individuals, local programs, and agencies engaged in climate adaptation.  AdaptVA focuses on the physical and social vulnerabilities by integrating the best available science, legal guidance, and planning strategies.  Visitors will find legal and policy resources, stories that explain adaption through maps and pictures, a searchable web catalogue, and mapping tools that address short and long-term predictions for rising water levels.”  The site’s content currently covers forecasts, adaptations, tools, maps and data, and planning and policy.